Saturday, July 4, 2015

The Monorail Project - Network Concepts

Once I described all the monorail network components, I had to develop a way to determine the best way to put them together. So, I used Excel to generate every possible combination of routes. Once I removed all the combinations that included two monorail lines serving the same resort, this left 1,201 possible combinations. Obviously, that is too many combinations to evaluate, so I ranked them based on station score per mile.

Below are the top 25 network combinations and the existing monorail network for comparison.


System number is an arbitrary number used to identify the alternative. System Combination lists the components of the network alternative, with '0' indicating no addition for a particular loop category. I allowed for multiple Epcot alternatives to be selected in a given network combination as long as no resort is served by two stations ('Epcot Loop CE' indicates that the system includes both Epcot Loop C and Epcot Loop E). Rank is the ranking of each combination by Score/Mile.

You may notice that the existing monorail network has the 75th highest Score/Mile. This does not necessarily mean that the Walt Disney World Monorail System should be extended. It is possible that the operational characteristics of any of the 74 higher-scoring systems would be worse than the existing system. And it is quite likely that the substantial capital costs of a greatly expanded system might not pay for themselves. But I was still surprised that any combination would have a higher station score than the existing system.

I selected the 1st, 7th, 10th, 23th-ranked alternatives for further analysis:

Build-Out 1094 was selected because it was the highest-ranked alternative. The ridership characteristics of this network should be nearly identical to the 11th ranked Build-Out 1098, which has all the same stations but uses the longer Hollywood Studios Loop B which does not cross the Hollywood Studios theme park.

Build-Out 838 was selected because it was the shortest network in the top 25 at 33 miles.

Build-Out 1112 was selected because it was the highest ranked alternative with a Sports Loop.

Build-Out 453 was selected because it was the highest-ranked alternative using Park Connector A.

I will be moving forward with the above concepts to determine the likely feasibility and operational characteristics of each monorail network alternative. Between now and the next post on this project, I will need to find a realistic number of guests per room at these hotels (at a peak season) so I can determine the daily ridership on each segment. I will also need to determine the average distribution of trips to theme parks throughout the day so I can begin to model the peak hour operating characteristics of the system. If you have any idea where I can find this data, please let me know.